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Predicting Bitcoin price movement using BaZi and Chinese Astrology

I’ve been researching Chinese BaZi for over 15 years, last 6 years quite extensively. Mostly my focus was on individuals, and their interactions with people and ability to obtain wealth, power, education etc. Analysing an entire market, such is cryptocurrency, is completely different game, and I started to look into it just few months ago, so please consider all this as research in progress. And also, to make it clear, please do not consider any info here as financial advice. This method is untested and highly speculative.

When I look into a person’s chart, things are relatively simple, we have a central point of reference, which is Master Element, and we look entire chart to analyse the enviroment. With stock markets or cryptocurrencies we do not have a chart because we do not have a date of birth. It’s even more problematic with regular stocks, like Facebook or Apple, because we have to consider charts of CEOs, founders and all influential board or team members, to be able to draw conclusions.

Another issue is how to classify certain business. A person is born as a single Master Element, like for example Steve Jobs is Yang Fire. Which Element is Apple? Hard to say. Generally talking, finances are Metal Elements, but if we analyse for example oil company, then we are probably talking about Fire Element. If it’s a traveling company, like Expedia, then we might consider Water to be a central point of reference.

The reason why I’m interested to follow Bitcoin and apply BaZi knowledge to it is its relative simplicity. Bitcoin has no owner, no CEO, no board members, and heck, we don’t even know most of people behind top 100 Bitcoin wallets. This purity makes Bitcoin to follow natural laws more organically, without direct meddling of powerful individuals. (Although some might argue that there are so called Bitcoin whales who are manipulating BTC price, but because of their anonymity, BTC is still far more organic than any other stock or asset out there.)

Bitcoin is also often called a store of value, or digital gold, so we can clearly classify this asset as Metal because it has all properties of that Element.

So, if Metal is the central point of reference we are able to look into charts and see how this Metal might behave in different periods.

Click to enlarge

The year 2017, or precisely, from 5. February 2017 to 5. February 2018, was a year of Rooster. Rooster represents the strongest type of Metal in BaZi, therefore we could predict that in 2017 we will have a strong focus on finances and money management. Bitcoin was growing steadily almost entire 2017. In December we had a Rat, which is the strongest manifestation of Water Element. Metal is producing Water in Five Element production cycle, which means that Metal Element went into strong productive mode. This production peaked on 16th December, which is peak of the Rat month. After that day it went into correction, but then again went back into productive mode, and finally reached the end of the line.

On 6. January we entered Ox month, which represents mainly Earth and Metal. Water Element was gone, and Metal Element became excessive. Excessive Metal Element, without Water to produce, or Wood and Fire to interact with, suddenly becomes unusable, or inflated, hence the sudden drop in value.

Entire Ox month represents inflation of Metal Element, therefore Bitcoin was going downhill until end of Rooster and beginning of Dog year, on 5. February. At that point Metal Element was pretty much non-existing, therefore BTC market went through a reset. From 5. February Bitcoin was growing steadily for exactly one month (Tiger), then it dived in again on 6th March, which is beginning of the Rabbit month. The reason for this is most likely excessive Fire which came from combination between Rabbit and Dog, so Metal was completely diminished.

From that point I have to admit I was pretty much unclear how things will unfold, although, I did mark one date on my calendar as significant, which is 12. April. On this date we had a major triple clash between Dog and Dragon. These kind of clashes represent a major movements. If this would be a chart of the person, I would predict a career change or moving house or that he is going to live in another city or country. I wasn’t sure how this clash will affect Bitcoin, until 12. April arrived.

On that day Bitcoin jumped over 1.000 dollars in a single hour, (interestingly enough, matching the hourly clash on Asian markets), and it moved crypto market into an uptrend. Just two weeks later entire crypto market cap gained almost 50%. The recovery was well on the way, after months of down trend, and it all got initiated on 12. April, with major Dog and Dragon clash.

Now, as I said, this is all still research in progress, it’s hard to draw conclusions from such small sample and few data points, but if somebody asked me to pin point few dates in 2018 which might trigger major change in the crypto market, on top of that list would be 5. February and 12. April. And it turned out on both those days BTC and crypto experienced a major shift.

So probably many of you are asking, what is next?

At the moment I have just two possible triggers in my mind. One is month of June, when Fire Element will become extremely strong, therefore Metal will be extremely weak. Another trigger might be in October when we will have few more triple clashes between Dragon and Dog, and I think that might trigger a major uptrend which could last until end of the year.

If this scenario with Metal confirms throughout the year, then we might see a very interesting progress in 2019 and 2020 when strong Water arrives, which will put Metal (and Bitcoin) into full production mode, which might represent a mass adoption of cryptocurrency altogether.

So, these are my two cents. Predicting price movement only based on astrology is not recommended, but if combined with proper Technical Analysis and being aware of what is going on in cryptosphere, I think it can add an interesting and useful dimension and help us understand those big shifts in the market.

Also published on Medium.

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